Dr Tomka Barnabás

Europe doesn’t run out of ideas.It runs out of small companies that can deliver them.I meet SMEs with:12 peopletwo CNC machinesone quality engineerand decades of know-howAnd they produce components that:keep aircraft flyingkeep systems operationalkeep export programs alivekeep OEMs on scheduleHere’s the reality:More than 50% of critical defence components in Europe come from companies with fewer than 50 employees.They are invisible.But without them, nothing moves.Europe’s industrial autonomy begins in workshops that never make the news.

Europe’s defence industry cannot innovate alone.It needs the dual-use sector.Why?Because the fastest innovation is happening in:roboticsautonomymaterialselectronicssensorsaerospace subsystemsAI-enabled processesAnd here’s the key insight:Over 60% of breakthrough defence technologies originate from dual-use companies.These companies are:agileexport-capableinnovation-drivenalready delivering high complexity workThey are the missing bridge between Europe’s industrial past and its industrial future.And they will define who leads the next decade.

Five years ago traceability was “nice to have.”Today it decides who gets contracts.OEMs now expect:material origin trackingbatch-level traceabilitydigital documentationsupplier mappingcybersecurity compliancedocumented process controlAnd here’s the shift:In 2020, fewer than 20% of defence SMEs had full digital traceability.By 2025 80% of OEM tenders require it.Many SMEs can produce world-class components but if they cannot prove their process they will not enter the defence supply chain.The future belongs to companies that can show their work.

Building capacity is not like flipping a switch.It’s a 24–48 month process, minimum.To increase output an SME needs to:buy machines (12–18 months delivery time)hire and train operatorsget re-qualifiedvalidate new processesexpand digital systemspass cybersecurity checkspass OEM auditsscale documentationmaintain complianceAnd here’s the critical number:A typical SME can increase capacity by 8–12% per year.OEM demand is growing by 30–50%.This gap is where Europe’s industrial risk is born.

Here’s the surprising truth: - OEMs are not afraid of budgets. - Or demand. - Or technology. They fear this: That Europe won’t have enough suppliers to build what needs to be built. Some OEM executives now openly state: “We don’t know if the supply chain can scale.” “Capacity is our biggest risk.” “We need 2–3× more qualified suppliers in the next 5 years.” Not more factories. More suppliers. This is the new strategic risk of the European defence industry.

You know the OEMs.But the real work happens in places you’ve never heard of.Small teams — 10, 20 maybe 40 people — delivering critical:Innovationprecision partselectronicscompositessoftware modulesmachiningtoolingcomponents that keep entire platforms operationalThese SMEs rarely appear in press releases.But the truth is:Europe’s defence systems live or die based on companies with fewer than 50 employees.If Europe wants industrial autonomy these SMEs must be supported, upgraded and integrated at scale.

Most SMEs don’t fail because of technology.They fail because of paperwork.The gatekeeping mechanisms:EN9100AQAPCybersecurity requirementsExport controlsMaterial traceabilityProcess documentationThese requirements eliminate companies long before price or quality enter the conversation.A striking number:Up to 60% of SMEs fail their first attempt to enter a major OEM supplier list due to missing documentation or process maturity.Not capability.Not talent.Not experience.Documentation.This is the real battlefield for future suppliers.

If your components come from China or Russia you won’t enter a European defence supply chain.Not in 2026. Not in 2030. Not ever again.This is not politics.This is compliance.European OEMs are quietly shifting to:China-free materials and electronics;Russia-free metals, alloys, machining;Conflict-free origin requirements;Full supply chain traceability.And here’s the number that surprises most SMEs:In several programmes 30–50% of current suppliers will not meet the new rules.This is the biggest reshuffle of supply chains in Europe in decades and the biggest opportunity for...

Every European OEM I speak with says the same thing:“We don’t lack contracts. We lack qualified suppliers.”Some facts:Several major OEMs report supply chain shortages on 30–70% of components;Many programs now run months or years behind schedule due to supplier gaps;Up to 60% of potential SMEs fail at certification or documentation requirements.This is why the bottleneck is not political.Not financial.Not technological.It’s operational.And it’s exactly why the next decade will be defined by one thing:Which European SMEs enter and succeed in the...

Europe can increase budgets by 50, 100 or 200%.But can it increase production capacity by even 10%?Right now:lead times are exploding;SMEs are overloaded;qualification queues are full;OEMs can’t find and select new suppliers fast enough;securing qualified human resources is challenging than ever;many raw materials and components still come from China or non-EU sources.Capacity. Capability. Compliance.This is the real bottleneck.Europe’s new industrial renaissance will succeed or fail on this point alone.